Johor state election: Five battles that will show whether Malaysia’s political tide has turned

JOHOR BAHRU – Nomination Day on June 27 is done, the candidates are confirmed, and Malaysia’s most consequential string of state elections in years is now officially under way.

Who among the 172 candidates will take their places in the 56-strong assembly will determine not just who governs the southernmost state for the next five years, but also whether Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim can secure a second term due in early 2028.

Pakatan Harapan (PH) won just one seat at the November Sabah polls – a huge setback as Sabahans chose locally based parties. Johor – as well as Negeri Sembilan and Melaka, which are set to follow later in 2026 – will reflect more of the sentiment on the peninsula, home to 165 of Malaysia’s 222 federal constituencies and thus a far better barometer of the national mood.

Johor’s July 11 vote kicks off four state elections in 10 months, after which Anwar will have just eight months left to call a general election.

Barisan Nasional (BN) is expected to retain its home state, but PH and the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA) will all be looking to make gains. New entrant Parti Bersama Malaysia, helmed by Rafizi Ramli, adds another wild card.

An internal feud in federal opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN) dating back to 2025 saw an end to the cooperation between lead members Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia in early June.

This comes on the back of an exodus of a swathe of leaders from Bersatu after its deputy president Hamzah Zainudin was sacked in February.

With a weakened Bersatu and without a joint machinery, chances of a successful PN campaign are slim. Hence, despite its earlier plans to contest all 56 seats in the state, it has fielded only 33 candidates.

Given that PN draws nearly all its support from the Malay majority, it would be interesting to see who its disillusioned supporters would pick between BN and PH or if they would simply not turn up on July 11.

As most major parties announced their candidate list ahead of Nomination Day, there were few surprises. Defections such as former state executive councillor Mazlan Bujang’s move from Bersatu to PAS was unveiled earlier in the run-up.

However, the little-known Malaysian Orang Asli Party is making its debut, with its 52-year-old candidate Jati Awang citing the need for better representation of the aboriginal community.

Here are the five big battles showing how support from key demographics has shifted – and what that means for Malaysia’s political landscape.

Battle for the Chinese vote: Johor Jaya and Tangkak

Johor’s electoral roll largely reflects the national demographic, with Malays, ethnic Chinese and other communities making up roughly a 60:30:10 ratio. But in about a quarter of the 56 wards, Chinese voters form the largest bloc.

The Sabah polls saw a sharp drop of Chinese voters for PH, a key plank of its support since 2008. This has given BN’s Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) hope that it can reclaim some of these seats.

Internal sources told The Straits Times that Tangkak is a priority target followed by Johor Jaya, given the slim margins of victory for PH’s Democratic Action Party (DAP) in 2022.

Should MCA succeed, this would be viewed as evidence that disenchantment among Chinese voters with PH is indeed a national trend, and would bode ill for PH’s hopes of coming out on top again at the next general election.

Candidates:

Johor Jaya

Tangkak

Battle for Bersatu: Bukit Kepong and Layang-Layang

After PAS said on June 8 it was pausing its cooperation with Bersatu, the immediate question was which of these co-founders of the PN would have custody of the coalition after the divorce. As it turns out, they are still co-parenting, and both will use the PN logo while running separate campaigns in Johor.

Nonetheless, this is Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin’s home state, where he was once chief minister. The Bukit Kepong seat in his parliamentary constituency of Pagoh will be a test of whether the former prime minister remains a force.

“It doesn’t matter. I didn’t ask anyone to help us campaign,” he told reporters after accompanying Bersatu’s Bukit Kepong candidate Sahruddin Jamal to the nomination centre.

“So far, we will continue to work hard based on our own strength, as well as the policies and track record we have built over the years. I am confident voters know how to make their choice.”

This will be especially pertinent after the exodus of most of Bersatu’s lawmakers, who followed parliamentary opposition leader Hamzah into his new Parti Wawasan Negara, which has been embraced by PAS. A weakened Bersatu is contesting just 16 seats, less than half the 33 it stood in at the 2022 Johor polls.

Bersatu also managed to pull off a coup after UMNO’s incumbent in the central ward of Layang-Layang defected to defend his seat, as BN handed the candidacy to MCA this time. BN has never lost the seat, so a Bersatu win would be a huge fillip for Muhyiddin.

Candidates:

Bukit Kepong

Layang-Layang

Battle of would-be menteris besar: Larkin

Located in the heart of Johor Bahru, Larkin is shaping up to be a contest between two potential chief ministers.

Incumbent Hairi Mad Shah – UMNO Youth vice-chief and holder of the youth and sports portfolio that once launched Onn Hafiz Ghazi’s rise to Menteri Besar – faces Parti Amanah Negara’s Suhaizan Kayat, a federal MP and former Johor assembly Speaker.

Within the PH structure, Amanah is nominally the lead party for Johor. Suhaizan, the party’s state vice-chief, is its highest-profile candidate.

“We leave it to the people to choose the best leader to lead the people of Johor,” said Suhaizan, indicating the importance of the Larkin contest.

As part of Johor Bahru’s rapidly developing “golden circle”, the constituency reflects growing concerns among urban Malays over redevelopment, the loss of traditional Malay villages and rising living costs. The result will offer a gauge of where urban Malay voters place their hopes, especially given the two main candidates are viewed as potential leaders for Johor.

“They are elephants while I’m just a mousedeer,” said Bersama’s Norsinah Abu, referring to the stature of her opponents and to her party’s logo.

Larkin has swung before. PH wrested it from BN in 2018, before BN reclaimed it in 2022.

Candidates:

Larkin

Battle for the urban vote: Puteri Wangsa and Bukit Batu

Apart from hosting large numbers of Chinese voters, middle-income urban constituencies have largely gone with PH (or its previous incarnation Pakatan Rakyat) since 2013.

Ostensibly, they seem more in tune with national issues than with local sentiment (save for 2018, Johoreans have largely continued to back BN to run the state). Hence, they could provide insight into whether urban voters are ready to give new and smaller parties a chance.

Two seats in particular stand out. Youth-centric party MUDA took Puteri Wangsa in 2022, the only party outside of the three main coalitions to win a seat in the assembly. But it did so as part of an electoral pact with PH, and they have since gone their separate ways. If MUDA manages to hold on to the seat, it could signal that those disappointed with the Anwar administration are ready to dump PH and go with other progressive parties.

Similarly in Bukit Batu, Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) clung on to the seat by a mere 137 votes, the smallest margin of all 56 contests. This is where Rafizi’s Bersama is most likely to score a win. But it is also just as likely that the party may split the PH vote bank and pave the way for BN to reclaim the constituency.

“We know people don’t vote for the state independent of their views on national issues. If our vote tally is comparable to that of one of the bigger coalitions, that would be ground-breaking,” said Rafizi, a former PKR deputy president.

Candidates:

Puteri Wangsa

Bukit Batu

Battle for the east coast: Endau

PAS is fielding just 11 candidates, fewer than the 15 it fielded in 2022. This is perhaps due to the fact that it will not have Bersatu’s backing in Muhyiddin’s backyard, thus reducing its chances of victory.

But if PAS were to make inroads in Johor, it will likely be via the north-east, in the direction of its strongholds of Kelantan and Terengganu farther north.

The defection of Alwiyah Talib from Bersatu to UMNO in the north-easternmost ward of Endau presents PAS with an opportunity to test whether its growing influence in other non-traditional states like Pahang, Perak and Selangor will also be seen here.

Candidates:

Endau